The debate as to who the best
quarterback prospect heading into this year’s draft began as Matt Leinart or
Vince Young. At the end of the college season, that debate evolved to include
Vanderbilt’s Jay Cutler. All have been given the dubious title of “can’t miss
prospect.” History shows that
one of them will miss. Only three times in the past decade have two or more
quarterbacks who have been selected in the first round proven to be solid
selections.
In 1999, the so-called “Year
of the Quarterback,” only Donovan McNabb and Daunte Culpepper went on to lead
their teams to the playoffs. Cade McNown, Akili Smith and Tim Couch (who may go
down as the biggest top pick bust ever) aren’t even in the NFL. In 2003, the
Bengals hit big with Carson Palmer, but the devastating knee injury he suffered
in Cincinnati’s first round playoff loss to Pittsburgh last season may derail a
promising career. The Jaguars’ choice of Byron Leftwich with the seventh overall
selection appears to be a solid one, but again, no playoff wins. The jury is
still out on the Ravens’ Kyle Boller and the Bears’ Rex Grossman. And finally,
in 2004, the Giants’ Eli Manning looks to be on the same stratospherical rise as
his older brother while the Steelers’ Ben Roethlisberger is already a Super Bowl
champion.
It’s way too early to make a
call on the three first-rounders last season: Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers and
Jason Campbell. But for every Roethlisberger, there are three Jim
Druckenmiller’s (1997, No. 26 pick by San Francisco). For every Carson Palmer,
there are a number of Ryan Leaf’s (1997, No. 2 pick by San Diego. Okay, on
second though, maybe there is only one Leaf. But the odds of Leinart, Young and
Cutler all being long-term, standout NFL quarterbacks are very slim. This
year’s draft somewhat resembles 2002, when the Texans were essentially picking
between David Carr and Joey Harrington. Granted, neither was rated as highly as
either Young or Leinart, but the situational similarities hold true.
The Texans were certain to
draft a quarterback. The questions surrounding Carr, much like Young today,
centered on his throwing motion. Harrington, like Leinart, was the most
polished passer. Now, Carr was just given a three-year extension (much to the
dismay of many Texans fans) and Harrington was released by the Lions.
It’s impossible to say, or
even think, that Leinart or Young won’t go on to great things in the NFL. Both
just seem to have that certain “it” that players like Couch or Harrington didn’t
have. And it may be easy to cast Cutler aside as the one most likely to fall by
the wayside, only because he played in the college football black hole that is
Vanderbilt. I mean, really, did anyone outside of Tennessee see this guy play?
Cutler has wowed the pro
scouts this off-season and his stock is climbing because of it. There is
speculation now that he may jump ahead of Young in this April’s draft. So,
Arizona, Oakland, the Jets, and any other team salivating at the chance to get
one of the Big Three, be warned.
One of them will not pan out.